Most Highly Esteemed Fantasy Football Guru

Been a while

2006-08-25T17:06:00.000-05:00

since I last posted. My day job has been getting in the way. Not only that, but the player news is getting out of control. Every day a new player is hurt or missing time, while another is getting healthier. Then the next day they reverse.

I will give a piece of advice - ignore most of these dire predictions for minor injuries. The guys I would worry about at RB are Domanick Davis, Clinton Portis and Brian Westbrook - in that order. Portis and Westbrook will probably be OK to play, but may lose goal line carries in their respective offenses due to their injuries. Davis is just a real wild card. If it is ever announced he can't go week 1, Vernand Morency is the man.

Guys moving up in drafts are: Mike Bell, Willie Parker, Chester Taylor, Carson Palmer, Frank Gore, Kevan Barlow and Derrick Mason.

Guys falling later in drafts are: Clinton Portis, Terrel Owens, Domanick Davis, Brian Westbrook, Cedric Benson, Deion Branch, and Vernon Davis.

This weekend, I will debunk my dominating your draft posts by outlining what I like to call the "Alternative strategy." Be sure to check this one out before you draft next week.

Kevan Barlow IS A JET

2006-08-21T20:05:00.000-05:00

Yes, he was traded and actually passed his physical. Barlow is a Jet! What does this mean?

Well, Frank Gore goes up into the top 25 RBs easily now and could go as high as round 3 or 4 in your drafts. He is the undisputed #1 and has been productive, injury issues aside. Barlow, probably stays around round 9 to 11, unless he gets named the starter for sure between now and week 1.

Gore is the big news here. This trade says he is Norv Turners' guy and we all know that means .....

Jerramy Stevens, Hines Ward, David Givens and Domanick Davis Updates

2006-08-18T14:06:00.000-05:00

Well, you just drafted your team and are feeling pretty good about yourself. You stole Domanick Davis at the top part of round 2. Hines Ward fell to you in round 4. You also picked up receiver Givens and TE Stevens late in the draft because your outdated fantasy football magazine said they were good value. What could be wrong?

I am here to dash those feelings on a stone. Here are some reports:

Domanick Davis - RB Domanick Davis hasn't practiced for almost three weeks and the Houston Texans don't know when he'll return. There is a possibility he will miss the entire preseason because of problems with his knee. He had arthroscopic surgery in December after his knee swelled and ached each time he played. If Davis is not healthy enough to play in any of Houston's three remaining preseason games, coach Gary Kubiak isn't sure if he would start him in the opener even if he's fully recovered - ESPN.com

Davis is looking more and more like a younger version of Curtis Martin. Heck, Martin may be on the field sooner than Davis! Antowain Smith got his chance to shine last week, but didn't do anything special. This week Vernand Morency gets a shot. Anybody who tells you they know where this situation is going is lying.

Hines Ward - Hines Ward has been struggling with a hamstring injury. He tried to go on it recently, but then had to pull back as it began to hurt again. He was quoted as saying yesterday by Footballguys.com:

"The hamstring is just not cooperating. If anybody has any advice to give me or find a new hamstring for me, trust me I'm out there to take it."

Anybody willing to give up their hammy for Hines?

David Givens - WR David Givens was scheduled to have an MRI on his injured hamstring. - The Tennessean

Givens hamstring has hampered him to the point they felt he needed an MRI. Not a good sign.

Jerramy Stevens - The Seattle Seahawks' offense took a significant hit Thursday when tight end Jerramy Stevens tore the meniscus in his surgically repaired left knee during practice.
The team said Stevens is expected to miss the next six weeks, including the start of the regular season. A Thursday afternoon MRI revealed the extent of the injury. Stevens was scheduled for surgery in Seattle on Friday - ESPN.com

Itula Mili is now the man in Seattle, but Stevens was viewed by most as a top 10 TE. Mili probably won't fit that bill as well, but may be a better blocker for Shaun Alexander.

Gore the man in San Fran

2006-08-17T11:14:00.000-05:00

Frank Gore is coming off of shoulder surgery during the offseason, but has looked pretty solid for the 49ers in the backfield. He had some decent games last year too. However, Kevan Barlow has been the starter the past 2 seasons, and with all of the questions surrounding Alex Smith at quarterback, many have dropped Gore down to a mediocre option at best. This is good news for you, as you can have the guy in round 4 or 5 (or later) and potentially get a starter for your team.

Some would argue that he is going to split carriers with Barlow at best and is not a fantasy option. However, after reading this article, I disagree:

HC Mike Nolan said he spoke to RB Kevan Barlow to calm him about a rumor that he might be traded to the Jets. "I said, 'Kevan, we have not had serious talks with the Jets,'" Nolan said. New York thought it had acquired a replacement for RB Curtis Martin but voided a trade with the Browns after RB Lee Suggs failed a physical. "Have we talked to the Jets?" Nolan said. "Yeah, we've talked to the Jets, but about a lot of things. But serious talks? No." - InsideBayArea.com

It appears that Barlow was shopped around a little, but his pricetag was too high for the Jets blood - so far. What this does mean, however, is that Gore appears to be the #1 back in San Francisco. Add into the mix that Barlow has been missing practices with an injury sustained in the first preseason game, and it appears more and more likely that Gore is the man in San Fran.

Continue to watch the news out of the 49ers camp and preseason games, but Gore could be a true sleeper at fantasy football's most prized position.

Koren Robinson in Jail

2006-08-16T22:23:00.000-05:00

Well, one of my top sleeper picks is in jail today. Koren Robinson at 26 was the #1 guy in Minnesota, kind of running under the radar ... that is until radar picked him up going over 100 MPH last night in MN. He then tried to outrun the cops, failed a sobriety test and was incarcerated overnight. In addition, he is a past offender of the NFL drug policy so he is probably suspended for the season.

Anyway, looks like my sleeper pick at WR is still sleeping it off. Troy Williamson is the man in Minnesota, supposedly, but watch out for Travis Taylor too.

Lee Suggs not a Jet ...

2006-08-15T21:51:00.000-05:00

As I reported in the previous post, Lee Suggs has a history of injury problems. Well, the history continues as he failed his physical and is not a Jet. The trade is off, the Jets still need a RB and the Browns get another broken down player back on their roster. I am sure that Romeo Crennel was crossing his fingers saying "Come on Lee, fool them just this one time!" But it wasn't meant to be.

This means that the trade rumors about Chris Brown or Ron Dayne going to the Jets will only intensify again, after a short one day break. Again, it really doesn't matter that much anyway, as no Jet running back at this point would be worthy of any higher than a 6th round draft pick anyway.

Lee Suggs a Jet?

2006-08-15T14:30:00.000-05:00

Well, the Jets are more desperate than we all thought, having actually traded for the likes of Lee Suggs. His injury history is pretty long, so it is unlikely he could handle the full load for a season in New York. It remains to be seen if that is even what the Jets want to do. They may choose the committee approach, alternating Derrick Blaylock, Leon Washington (R), Cedric Houston and Suggs. Keep an eye on this situation, but even if one guy is named the starter, they should not be higher than a 4th back on your squad. If you are looking to the Jets RB situation on draft day to fill a starting role, you are in deep trouble.

Down goes Portis .....

2006-08-14T09:07:00.000-05:00

Last night, I was in Cincinnati attending the game against the Redskins and was unaware that Portis had been injured until I turned the radio on in my car on the way home. Some have misreported this as a separated shoulder, but he actually has a partially dislocated shoulder, meaning the ball left the joint and then went back into place. I am not a doctor, but it appears that this issue is not that serious, unless he tore some soft tissue around the joint when it happened.

In either case, this could have significant impact on fantasy football drafts everywhere, as Portis was the consensus #4 to #5 back in most drafts. Tiki Barber's stock is going up, as is Ladell Betts, Portis' primary backup. The problem is, I heard this morning that they plan to keep Portis out of the rest of preseason now, regardless of his condition. This will make it tough for fantasy footballers to judge his readiness. Do you take a gamble on him at #4, or will he slide into the 2nd and 3rd rounds? Of course, some uninformed novice or rookie in your league will take him or have autodraft take him in the first round anyway. If so, ignorance could be bliss, or it could be a huge mistake.

Initial reports seem to indicate it is something he can play with this injury, but will be in some pain. Keep an eye on the news out of Washington, but beware of smoke screens put out as to the severity of his condition. If he is going to be near 100% on opening day, the Redskins will be unlikely to be real forthcoming with that information, hoping to keep Minnesota in the dark as long as possible, as well as us fantasy football guys.

Dominating the Draft Round 6 and on

2006-08-11T18:31:00.000-05:00

Well, if you followed the previous post about dominating the draft, you should have 3 quality running backs and 2 quality wid receivers through 5 rounds. Now, it's time to finally draft a quarterback. Let's look at the top guys:

(1) Peyton Manning - long gone by round 2, but he is the best. With Edgerrin James gone, he will probably far surpass 2005's numbers. He's just not worth a quality running back.

(2) Tom Brady - long gone by round 3 or 4, but he is the consensus #2 quarterback this year. His yardage totals and attempts last year have led to most believing that this will be a new trend. However, those who follow this reasoning assume the New England defense will continue to be pourous this year, Corey Dilloan and Laurence Maroney will either be injured or won't be effective in the running game and that Deion Branch holding out and David Givens leaving for Tennessee won't matter. Add into the mix that during fantasy playoff season Brady is heaving it in the snow of Massachusetts, and I think he is a bit over rated. However, I would take him in Round 6.

(3) Carson Palmer - If his knee had not been torn asunder in the playoffs last year, he might be jockeying with Manning for #1 status. Palmer had the most touchdowns last season of any quarterback and his entire cast returns. The question is whether and when he will, and how well he will play on the injured knee. I would take him in round 6, but would want to take another guy in round 7 for insurance.

(4) Matt Hasselback - The Seahawks are so high powered that they can have the #1 or #2 fantasy running back and the #4 quarterback. He is truly a stud and should be consistent in his performance.

(5) Eli Manning - Many have him #3 this year, but he has to prove more in my opinion. #5 is probably a little too high, especially if Plaxico Burruss starts to have attitude issues like he did in Pittsburgh and Jeremy Shockey can't snap out of this concussion thing. Still, his pedigree means he will probably be a good scoring QB this season.

After this group, there is another group which you might consider taking in round 6, but someone could argue against taking them. They are:

Donovan McNabb
Drew Bledsoe
Jake Delhomme
Trent Green
Marc Bulger
Kurt Warner
Daunte Culpepper

If none of these guys are around in the 6th round, look for an elite TE. There are only 5:

Antonio Gates (gone in the 3rd round usually)
Tony Gonzalez (gone between the 4th and 5th round)
Jeremy Shockey (slipping since the concussion reports)
Alge Crumpler (Vick's go to guy, should be available)
Todd Heap (best receiver on team with new QB - Air McNair)

If these are all gone, then pick the next best WR or RB. Pick a tight end then around the 10th or 11th round, as the fall off is that dramatic between the elite and the rest of the field.

Do not take a defense or a kicker here or anywhere near here. Save these for your somewhere between round 12 to 16, depending on how many rounds you have. No one can accurately predict a kicker or defensive output. For example, Jay Feely and Neil Rackers were 2 of the best point scorers money could buy last year. Rackers was not drafted in most leagues and Feely was a late pick. Don't overspend for Adam Vinatieri or Mike Vanderjagt, or the aforementioned Feely and Rackers. Take a quality guy with a quality offense and hope for the best. Then watch the waiver wire for this year's version of Rackers.

As for Defense, we all know the big names - Chicago, Carolina, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, etc ... But I like to use a different approach. Pick a team that plays a weak offense in week 1 to 3, then feel free to drop them for a waiver wire defense that offers a better matchup. By playing matchups, you can draft a defense with your last pick and load up on sleeper backs and receivers.

And just who are these sleepers? Well, I will publish a sleepers list of players that will be available in this part of the draft next week, so you will have to come back again to read about them.

Bad news for Julius Jones owners, Ron Dayne now available for Trade?

2006-08-11T12:48:00.000-05:00

Well, if you already had your draft, you probably saw Julius Jones go in either the 2nd or 3rd round. If you were the guy who took him, read and weep below:

Jones and Barber "Interchangeable" - Bill Parcells has been so impressed by RB Marion Barber III this training camp that he considers both Barber and RB Julius Jones interchangeable players. "In terms of total carries, I would see trying to get both of them quite a bit," Parcells said. "You know Marion is probably a little bit better on third down, so maybe Julius would take a little more of the load on early downs and Marion will be in there on third down" - Ventura County Star

Best advice I have to Julius Jones owners is to pickup Barber off waivers if he went undrafted, or hurry up and offer a trade to the goof who owns him now before the news reaches him. If you have not drafted yet, move Jones down your board for now, but stay tuned. This could all change during the preseason games.

Ron Dayne now trade bait? - The rumor mill at FootballDieHards.com is saying that Ron Dayne is now on the trading block for the NY Jets or others to offer for. Not sure if this is real or not, but I found an interesting article from July 27, 2006 on ESPN.com (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2532028) stating the Broncos tried to trade for Thomas Jones, so clearly Shanahan wasn't impressed with either Tatum Bell or Ron Dayne from the start. This is looking more and more like Mike Bell is the starter for the Broncos, with Tatum Bell his backup.

Drew Brees and Deuce McCallister Update - The Saints walking wounded appear to be healing better than hoped, with both reportedly hoping to play in the first preseason game, according to Louisana Advocate. "QB Drew Brees and RB Deuce McAllister, who are coming off offseason surgeries, said they want to get some work in against the Titans. Brees said he'd like to play a quarter, while McAllister wants to get in for 'a series or two.' 'I want to play what I normally play in a preseason game, which is about the first quarter,' said Brees. 'I wouldn't say I'm exactly 100 percent, but it's close.' McAllister had surgery in October for a torn ACL.

More Updates

2006-08-10T13:44:00.000-05:00

Well, before I tell you how to finish your draft, let me give you some more inside information on how key players and training camp battles are shaping up:

(1) Chris Brown's agent is trying to stir the pot a little - An agent for Brown visited training camp Wednesday in hopes of pushing the Titans closer to extending the running back's contract or trading him. Wynn Silberman said he planned to meet with GM Floyd Reese, who so far hasn't been willing to discuss an extension or trade. Silberman also left open the possibility that Brown may be advised to leave training camp at some point.

"We are trying to be diplomatic about this," Silberman said. "We are trying to act as professionally as we can and work with Floyd and the Titans, and either coming to a conclusion or an extension is a possibility or not. And if it isn't, we want him out of there. That is where we're at. ..." - Nashville Tennessean

(2) Curtis Martin says he wants to come back, but does not know when - The NFL's No. 4 all-time leading rusher said he is working out every day so he can come back as quickly as possible, and is hopeful he can play in the season opener Sept. 10 at Tennessee. But he made no guarantees about when his injured right knee will allow him to resume his career. "I'm working out as hard as I can," said Martin, resolute as always. "I don't know how long it will take me. All I can do is keep working the way I'm doing" - NFL.com

(3) Westbrook will not play in tonight's preseason game - As expected, Eagles RB Brian Westbrook won't play in Thursday's preseason game at Lincoln Financial Field against the Cleveland Browns - Philadelphia Inquirer

(4) Mike Williams and Charles Rogers on 3rd team for Lions - It is written on paper, not in stone, so it's subject to change. The first semi-official ranking of the Lions' receivers is more noteworthy for who is on the bottom. WR Roy Williams and WR Corey Bradford are the starters on the depth chart released by the team for Friday night's exhibition game against Denver. No surprise there. They have been the No. 1 tandem from the start of the offseason. The surprise is further down. WR Mike Williams and WR Charles Rogers, former first-round draft picks, are listed with the third group. Ahead of them with the second group are WR Glenn Martinez and WR Mike Furrey - Detroit News

(5) Bronco Running Back Battle Update by Cecil Lammey, Footballguys.com -

Mike Bell was still looking good today. It looks as though he's found his groove, and at times he was really knocking heads. Nick Ferguson did lay the wood to him on a run up the middle. Bell seem unaffected by Nick's hit, and continued practicing. He was hitting the hole hard, although he did bobble a toss, and that allowed the defense to jump all over him.

Tatum Bell was splitting reps with the first team, but did not look as good as Mike Bell. His hands are clearly improved, and that will help him get on the field more. Tatum will have 4 runs that don't go anywhere combined with 1 run that he breaks for a big one. This is trademark Bell, and should not come as a surprise to anyone.

Ron Dayne is not getting a lot of work with the 3rd team. He had some "pep" in his step today, and I did like his footwork when making a cut. He didn't really stand out, but was a solid performer when he got the chance.

Cedric Cobbs fumbled again today.

There is more brewing out there, but this is a good sampling. I will update players and injuries next Tuesday after the preseason games, unless there is something dramatic happening to report.

Dominating Your Draft - Revision 1

2006-08-09T14:54:00.000-05:00

OK - given some of the updates we have all been reading (see below), I have updated my path to the draft. Here it is:

Rule #1 - Avoid taking a top QB in the first 3 rounds. Doing this will allow you to maximize value. Cross Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Donovan McNabb and Carson Palmer off of your list. Some other person will draft them.

Rule #2 - Try to get 3 of the elite RBs in the first 3 rounds of your draft. This will be harder for you if you draft in a 12 team league, or if you are at the bottom of the draft. The elite RBs are defined as backs that are not in jeopardy of sharing carries or easily losing their status (if healthy). My rankings of these are as follows:

Larry Johnson, KC Chiefs
Shawn Alexander, Seattle Seahawks
LaDanian Thomlinson, San Diego Chargers
Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins
Lamont Jordan, Oakland Raiders
Steven Jackson, St. Louis Rams
Tiki Barber, NY Giants
Edgerrin James, Arizona Cardinals
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ronnie Brown, Miami Dolphins
Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles
Willis McGahee, Buffalo Bills
Reuben Droughns, Cleveland Browns
Willie Parker, Pittsburgh Steelers

This list will grow and change the closer we get to the start of the season as starters are named in Denver, Chicago and Indianapolis.

Rule #3 - By the third round, it may not be possible to get one of these guys. If that is the case, look for either a top WR, or a RB that is a little more risky. An elite wide out is a guy who will get enough looks to get over 80 catches in a season. The list of wide receivers are below:

Terrel Owens, Dallas Cowboys
Steve Smith, Carolina Panthers
Chad Johnson, Cincinnati Bengals
Torry Holt, St. Louis Rams
Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis Colts
Chris Chambers, Miami Dolphins
Randy Moss, Oakland Raiders
Anquan Boldin, Arizona Cardinals
Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Donald Driver, Green Bay Packers
Santana Moss, Washington Redskins
Darrel Jackson, Seattle Seahawks
Hines Ward, Pittsburgh Steelers
Plaxico Burruss, NY Giants
Roy Williams, Detroit Lions

The second group of running backs are more risky than the elite guys, but have the potential to be top 5 backs as well:

Deshaun Foster, Carolina Panthers
Corey Dillon, New England Patriots
Julius Jones, Dallas Cowboys
Kevin Jones, Detroit Lions
Chester Taylor, Minnesota Vikings
Domanick Davis, Houston Texans (would be an elite back if healthy)
Jamaal Lewis, Baltimore Ravens
Reggie Bush, New Orleans Saints

Rule #4 - Rounds 4 and 5 are about the wide receiver position

Now that you have 3 good running backs (or 2 good ones and an elite wid receiver), focus rounds 4 and 5 getting the best wide receivers available. Pick guys from teams that throw a lot, or where they will be the main target.

I will get to round 6 and beyond in a later post this week, so check back!

More Updates - Looks Bad for Curtis Martin

2006-08-09T10:12:00.000-05:00

Well, all of those preseason draft guides are starting to get dated as training camp continues to unfold. Here are some updates to situations that will impact every draft this year:

(1) First let's start with Mike Brown, Denver Broncos: This is from the Footballguys.com:

"Our Cecil Lammey brings you his look at the RBs in Broncos camp:

"Mike Bell had a nice run off tackle that he cut back up the gut for a big gain. He was "wowing" the crowd, and fans seemed to "ooh" and "ahh" every time he carried the ball. He's still showing that trademark power, that has catapulted him to the top of the depth chart. I liked the way he was catching passes today too. His pass blocking is very good for a rookie as well. The grind of practice is getting to some players, Coach Shanahan had this to say, "Yeah, everybody's sore. Everybody's tired, unless they are hurt. Those are the only guys that stay out. What I mean by hurt is injured, where they can't go. There's a lot of guys out there that are very sore with all of the contact we've had over the last 10 days, but you have to fight through it. There is not an easy way to do it. I've been pleased with the effort. By no means has it been perfect, but that is what practice is for."

"Tatum Bell" appears to be p******. There is a rage quietly building inside him. He has been very calm on the outside, but privately he will state his real opinion. He feels as though the Broncos' coaching staff doesn't trust him to be the #1 back. We shall see if Tatum uses this to motivate himself, or if it will be his ruin. He practiced with a chip on his shoulder today. He showed good hands, but didn't really stand out running the ball.

"Ron Dayne is looking motivated. He made a double spin move to the open field that few backs his size can make. If he hadn't looked so downtrodden last week, he might have held onto his starting job. Expect Dayne to look good in the preseason because that is what he does every year. And this year should be no different, especially now that Dayne is running with the 3rd team.

"Cedric Cobbs showed some power today. Too little, too late Cedric."

(2) From what I am reading, it appears that Curtis Martin will not be starting the season for the Jets and his career could be over. It was reported on ESPN yesterday that he asked the Jets to draft a running back with a high pick in the draft. Now, Ken Berger at Newsday is reporting that his knee conditions is "bone on bone" and that he "can't play." In addition to the reports that the Jets have shown interest in trading for Thomas Jones and Chris Brown, Berger is also reporting that the Jets have expressed interest in Michael Turner of the Chargers and Marcell Shipp of the Cardinals.

(3) Footballguys.com had this report from Scott Bomboy of NBC10.com about Brian Westbrook, fresh off his impressive showing in the HOF game. "The Eagles confirmed RB Brian Westbrook has a foot injury and will miss at least the Cleveland Browns pre-season game. In a brief note, the Eagles Web site reported that Westbrook has a 'foot sprain' and it is not a Lis Franc injury. Coach Andy Reid said Westbrook would definitely not play Thursday night. But there was no official mention of the boot, which is used to immobilize an injury. The boot or inflatable cast could be a big deal. Or the Eagles could be extra cautious. But the site of Westbrook wearing a boot has to scare Eagles fans."

(4) Cedric Benson was projected by most fantasy footballers drafting earlier this season to be the starter in Chicago this year. The reasoning was that he is paid the big money and won't sit another season, especially with a full training camp under his belt. When it was reported that Thomas Jones had a hamstring injury the first day of camp and would be out for a while (he has yet to return to practice) the Benson bandwagon got bigger. Now, he has hurt his shoulder and ESPN gave this report"

"Chicago Bears RB Cedric Benson said Tuesday that his sprained left shoulder is no worse than the team originally thought and expects to miss two to three weeks. Benson underwent an MRI after X-rays initially revealed no broken bones. He said results showed he had suffered a minor dislocation and he is undergoing rehab. 'They feel like it will be back to normal by the time the regular season comes,' Benson said."

Thomas Jones appears to want out of Chicago, as rumors circulate that his injury is a ploy to engineer a trade. Third string running back Adrian Peterson may be the starter on opening day for the Bears. If so, that will turn the fantasy world upside down.
Source: Ken Berger, Newsday.com

(5) Domanick Davis continues to not practice for the Texans, so the derby to either be his replacement of primary backup is heating up. Coach Gary Kubiak is quoted as saying yesterday about the pre-season games:

"They’re huge because our (running) backs are going to come from that group right now. We’re sitting here hoping for Domanick (Davis) to get back, but if that thing continues to give him problems, somebody is going to have to step up and be the starting back for this football team. We’ll find out during the course of these games, and it’s really hard to play four and five backs in the pre-season. I’ll let you guys know. We’ll probably isolate on two or three in the pre-season games, and one guy will probably wait and play the following week. So we’re just going to make sure we get a good look at all of them.”

He also said:

"Antowain is (Smith) going to play some. After that, we are probably going to isolate on two players out of those other guys because we can’t play them all and get a good look at them. We decide who those two will be on Thursday. We are going to make sure that they get a chance to play and not try to play four guys and end up with three or four carries each. We aren’t going to do that, when they play we want them to get some reps."

Reading between the lines, Antowain Smith appears to be the primary backup right now, or to be on the bubble. Stay tuned.

Dominating Your Draft - Revisions

2006-08-08T15:01:00.000-05:00

OK - given that we are now in training camp and things are starting to firm up (or get more confused) in different areas, I realize I need to revise a few of my statements earlier when I spoke about Dominating your draft. The model remains the same, but the names of players and rankings are changing a little bit. I hope to have it done by the end of the week.

In the meanwhile, I will keep giving you player updates.

Mike Who?

2006-08-08T10:26:00.000-05:00

Have you ever heard of Mike Bell, the RB for the Broncos? No, not Tatum Bell, but Mike Bell. Mike is an undrafted free agent, rookie running back out of Arizona that signed with the Denver Broncos shortly after the draft. He is also the named starter for them at tailback for the first preseason game. Yes, that's right. Mike Shanahan is apparently so unhappy with Ron Dayne and Tatum Bell that he is giving the job for this weekends game to this relatively unknown RB. Here is the link to the story: http://www.denverpost.com/ci_4146848?source=rss. This is a huge deal, as every Denver RB that has started for several seasons now has gone over the 1000 yard mark and put up strong fantasy numbers.

Bell ran for more than 900 yards three successive seasons with the Wildcats, averaging 4.8 to 5.5 yards per carry. He also caught a few balls out of the backfield during his tenure with Arizona, catching 18 passes for 197 yards his senior season. He is listed at 6'1", 218 lbs on his ESPN college player homepage (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/player/profile?playerId=115584), but when I was watching him on tape last night, he appeared smaller than that in the Broncos uniform. He showed up at the combine at 6'0" and 221 pounds, so unless he dropped some weight before camp, the numbers should be legit.

Mel Kiper said he showed some outside speed at the Senior Bowl practices (http://insider.espn.go.com/proxy/proxy.dll/insider/story?id=2307236&action=login&appRedirect=http%3A%2F%2Finsider.espn.go.com%2Fproxy%2Fproxy.dll%2Finsider%2Fstory%3Fid%3D2307236), but apparently the knock on him is his lack of breakaway speed. His 40 time at the combine was an unimpressive 4.61 (http://www.nfl.com/draft/analysis/expert/brandt/rb). Remember, Tyrell Davis, the guy who ran for 2000 yards as a 6th round draft pick? Or how about Reuben Droughns or Mike Anderson, both converted fullbacks without breakaway speed?

The question you have to ask yourself is this: Is Shanahan doing this because he believes this kid is the best fit for his system this year, or is he doing it to motivate Tatum Bell or Ron Dayne? My guess is the former, as Shanahan usually plays it straight up on the depth chart.

Only time will tell, but if Mike Bell is still with the 1st team after the 4th preseason game, he should be on your radar screen.

More Updates on Players

2006-08-06T23:04:00.000-05:00

Here are some snippets from some more articles (thanks to Joe Bryant of FootballGuys.com) following up some of the items discussed yesterday. Looks Like the Curtis Martin injury situation is garnering some new rumors, Cedric Benson no longer is a lock for the Bears at RB and Ron Dayne continues to look like the starter in Denver. We haven't had the first set of preseason games yet, so a lot of this information will change in short order.

(1) Source: Tom Rock, Newsday- With the injury status of RB Curtis Martin still up in the air, sources have stated that the Jets are believed to be monitoring approximately a dozen possibilities at runningback around the league. According to a person with knowledge of the situation, the Jets have contacted the Tennessee Titans about the availability of RB Chris Brown, who had asked the Titans to trade him recently because of the logjam in their backfield that includes Travis Henry and second-round pick LenDale White (who played for Tennessee offensive coordinator Norm Chow at USC). The Titans have yet to give Brown, who is in the final year of his deal, permission to seek a trade. The Broncos, Dolphins and Rams also have expressed interest in Brown, according to the source.

(2) Source: K.C. Johnson, Chicago Tribune - Wearing a black harness and a weary look, Bears RB Cedric Benson said Saturday that he isn't sure how long his left shoulder injury will sideline him. The Bears said X-rays were negative and further tests would be conducted soon to determine the length of his absence and the extent of the injury. During Friday's second practice session, Benson took hits from Brian Urlacher and Mike Brown as he ran with a completed pass from Rex Grossman. The hits didn't knock over Benson, but then he knelt on the ground. A cart was used to carry him off the field. Benson said he doesn't believe it is a separation and reminded everyone that he is a fast healer who came back from a sprained knee ligament last season. Benson also eloquently addressed questions about if the defense is singling him out for hitting because he missed training camp last season.

"Initially you tend to think bad things," Benson said. "You start to wonder why they hit you or if they were looking to hit you. But we watched the film and stuff and I definitely don't think they were trying to hit me or nothing like that. It was basically what we do every day in practice. I think it was a combination of bad timing, where I got hit and bad luck."

(3) Source: Cecil Lammey, Footballguys.com - Ron Dayne made a sick spin move to the open field, which resulted in a huge gain. He made some nice catches out of the backfield as well. I liked the way that he kept his feet moving after initial contact. It's this ability that Dayne seems to have and Bell does not. He delivered some punishment when running inside.

Tatum Bell was rocked in the backfield today. He went to make a cut (instead of following Cecil Sapp like he should have), and was put on the ground for a big loss by Nate Webster. Too often Tatum is arm tackled, and didn't show the ability to run through trash at the line of scrimmage. He is not being patient behind the line of scrimmage. And he doesn't allow his blocks to develop in front of him. He did show good hands on a swing pass or two.

Updates on key players

2006-08-05T14:03:00.000-05:00

Before I get back to how to dominate your draft, I thought it wise to provide some more information regarding the players previously discussed. Here are few updates around from around the league that I get from Joe Bryant at Footballguys.com:

(1) Source: Brad Biggs, SunTimes.com -RB Thomas Jones will probably miss another seven to ten days because of a hamstring pull sustained last Thursday. "It sure does seem it's my job to lose right now,'' RB Cedric Benson said Wednesday. ''Nothing has been said right now, but I am getting a lot of work with the [starters], and I'm taking advantage of it.''

But in practice the next day: Source: The Associated Press, via Lowell Sun Online - Chicago Bears running back Cedric Benson was carted off the field on Friday evening after injuring his left shoulder. Benson was injured on a passing play in which he was hit by linebacker Brian Urlacher and safety Mike Brown after catching a pass over the middle. X-rays are scheduled for Saturday morning. "He broke through, a freak accident, those kind of things happen," head coach Lovie Smith said. "Hopefully it isn't too serious."

(2) Source: The Associated Press, via Seattle Post-Intelligencer - San Diego Chargers running back LaDainian Tomlinson sat out of practice on Friday with a sore neck, the result of a collision with DE Igor Olshansky on Thursday. "I don't know what happened; I was just playing football," Olshansky said. "It's a physical game, things happen. But it's not purposely." San Diego coach Marty Schottenheimer said about the injury "Luckily there is nothing serious."

(3) Source: Mark Cannizzaro, New York Post - Curtis Martin remains on the Physically Unable to Perform list. There are a number of theories being floated about RB Curtis Martin's status. One is that he's not getting better and could be done. Another is that the Jets are trying to protect him from the rigors of HC Eric Mangini's grueling camp. Another is that Martin simply needs some more rest before playing. The most likely scenario is the second, meaning Martin will be back in time to play some preseason games and be ready for the opener.

(4) Source: AP, ESPN.com - Dallas Cowboys WR Terrell Owens missed his second practice Friday because of a sore left hamstring. Owens, who said he first felt a twinge Wednesday, instead rode an exercise bike at the morning practice. He said Thursday he wasn't sure whether he'd be ready for Saturday's controlled scrimmage. For his part, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones said he's not concerned, and there are no plans for medical tests.

(5) Source: Edward Lee, Baltimore Sun - During the offseason, the expectation was that RBs Jamal Lewis would be the starting RB and RB Mike Anderson would be the backup. But the Ravens unveiled a new wrinkle during training camp this week by positioning Anderson in the fullback role in a few 11-on-11 drills. The possibility of a Lewis-Anderson backfield in a single play is not far-fetched, according to RBs coach Tony Nathan. "That's in the plans, that's in the works," said Nathan, a former running back for the Miami Dolphins. "It can happen."

(6) Source: Ana Chavez, HoustonTexans.com -Houston Texans running back Domanick Davis will rest his knee for at least the next three days, in effort to reduce the swelling problems he has been experiencing.

On the same subject: Source: Joseph Duarte, Houston Chronicle - (New Coach Gary) Kubiak's message is simple: He prefers a running back with quick feet, good vision and one-cut ability. "We preach a one-cut philosophy," Kubiak said. "We tell (our running backs) you get one cut and no more. That's it. We don't want to wiggle. We want to go downhill and try and make a play." The change has meant more discipline for Morency, who spent part of Wednesday's morning session working with the first-team offense. With Domanick Davis still hobbled by a sore knee, the Texans have been splitting practice time among Morency, veteran Antowain Smith and rookie Wali Lundy.

(7) Source: Mike Triplett, New Orleans Times-Picayune The most important season of Donte Stallworth's career has been off to a rough start. He is in the final year of his contract, has been running mostly with the second-team offense, behind WR Devery Henderson. Stallworth was limited throughout the spring and summer after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery. Stallworth went blank during Tuesday's practice while lining up as the X receiver. As QB Drew Brees tried to direct him to the right spot, HC Sean Payton yelled in frustration, "I need another X. I'm tired of looking at him." On Wednesday he tweaked his groin.

(8) Source: David Boclair, The Daily News Journal, via the Nashville Tennessean
Tennessee Titans running back LenDale White has recently been missing practice time with the team as the result of a toe injury. No further information regarding the specifics or severity of the injury is currently available.

(9) Source: Chris Colston, USA TODAY - "RB Ladell Betts is better than a lot of people think," OC Al Saunders said. "RB Clinton Portis is more like RB Larry Johnson, where Ladell is more like RB Priest Holmes. It will be fun to mix and match those guys….They'll be on the field at the same time. Sure, there are times they won't be, but there will be some down-and-distance circumstances where our best players are those two guys. Both are accomplished receivers and excellent blockers. It adds another dimension to the utilization of our personnel."

(10) Source: Associated Press, FoxSports.com - Seahawks HC Mike Holmgren said top WR Darrell Jackson likely will not play until the team's Aug. 26 exhibition game at San Diego.
"He's on a program to get his leg straightened," Holmgren said Thursday. "His knee is pretty good, but his muscles in his quad and so on have to be stronger, so he doesn't re-injure anything. "He's right on schedule. We're setting a target date of a third preseason game."

(11) Source: Michael Wallace, HattiesburgAmerican.com - After making it back from offseason shoulder surgery, QB Drew Brees believes he is ready to play. "There is no doubt in my mind that I can go right now," Brees said. "But I'm going to build gradually, listen to my arm and listen to my body and build it up from there." He said his shoulder is "85 to 90" percent healthy. Brees added that "I reached my limit as far as where I could go with rehab. To pick up that last 10 to 15 percent is what camp is for."

(12) Source: David White, San Francisco Chronicle - With WR Jerry Porter's attitude and injury problems, the Oakland Raiders are moving on. Fourth-year WR Doug Gabriel has played with the first-team offense opposite Randy Moss, with Alvis Whitted on the field for three-receiver sets. Gabriel set career highs with 37 catches for 554 yards and three touchdowns last season. "We think we have a good receiving corps, and Doug is one of those guys," Shell said. "He can make plays, so we're just looking to see that he gets a chance to show what he can do."

Report from Training Camp

2006-08-02T22:44:00.000-05:00

Hello all from the Cincinnati Bengals Training Camp in Georgetown KY. It is very hot here, with some estimating the heat index on the field at 120 degrees. I can't imagine wearing a helmet and pads out there for 2 hours!

In any case, my kids and I went to the evening practice tonight (they had fireworks afterwards), and we did not attend the morning practice, so I missed half of the activities. What I can report is the following:

(1) Neither of the backup QBs (Wright or Johnson) completed a deep out. They were either overthrown or underthrown. This is the throw that Carson Palmer makes with ease and is a staple of the Bengal offense. You can't coach accuracy, so I hope Palmer can play week 1. He did not practice tonight, but I believe he did in the morning.
(2) Rudi Johnson, Chris Perry, Antonio Chatman, Odell Thurman and Carson Palmer skipped the practice tonight. Thurman is not slated to put pads on until August 13th and can't play until the 5th game in the season. Chris Perry is on the PUP, but I think Johnson, Chatman and Palmer all were held out for preventitive reasons.
(3) The Bengals pick in the supplemental draft, A. Brooks, could be the real steal of the offseason. He looks like a chiseled specimen at 6' 4" and 260 lbs, but he runs and moves like a WR. I saw him make a 1 handed grab tonight and then tuck the ball and run like a running back. I also saw him light up one of the rookie RBs trying to make the squad, taking his helmet off.
(4) The offseason pickup of Dexter Jackson could be a good one. He seems to be practicing with attitude. He went so far as to deck Kenny Watson after a play had been blown dead. I read on Bengals.com that he is making a practice of doing this. He also appears to be more stout than I thought, with more muscle in his legs and shoulders than I had originally thought.

Yeah, Chad Johnson lit the crowd up and TJ Houshmandzadeh had some impressive catches, but if Carson Palmer doesn't suit up, both of their fantasy numbers are in jeopardy. Common wisdom would say that this would mean more points for Rudi Johnson, but the Bengals may not be able to pound the ball against 8 man fronts if their QBs can't make defenses pay. Stay tuned for that one.

I wish I could say that I will be traveling the country to different training camps for reports, but alas, this is my only camp. I am going to attend the afternoon practice tomorrow and will report back anything I might find out.

Say it ain't so Willie!

2006-07-29T20:13:00.000-05:00

Willie Roaf is apparently retiring from football, leaving the Chiefs vaunted offensive line without its two starting tackles from last season. Add in the loss of Tony Richardson, fullback, and the departure of Dick Vermeil and offensive genius Al Saunders and it is starting to look like Larry Johnson is not the lock for #1 fantasy back everyone thought he would be. If Priest Holmes comes off the PUP and says he can contribute then it will be official.

That being said, Larry Johnson should still have a fabulouts season. All I am saying is that there are a lot more question marks about his season than there are about Shaun Alexander. Ladainian Thomlinson is looking more appetizing too, even with the unproven quarterback situation.

So, at this point, I have Alexander and Johnson as co #1s with L. T. a #1A. After the third preseason game, I will announce my final rankings.

QB strategy

2006-07-22T10:12:00.000-05:00

Just to recap, we are through 5 rounds. You should now have either 3 RBs and 2 WRs or 4RBs and 1 WR. Now it's finally time to look at the quarterback position. Yes, I know you have watched the likes of Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning and probably Matt Hassleback already get picked. In leagues where you fairly ignorant players, Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb and Daunte Culpepper may be gone by now too. Your trigger finger was getting itchy in round 4 and 5 to pick a QB, but you have shown self restraint. Now, exhale and pick your quarterback.

"But which one?" you say, "All the good ones are gone!" Never fear, I have a handy list of guys who should be available:

Jake Delhomme - Delhomme has been a top 10 fantasy QB for years, but never gets his due. Now with Keyshawn and Steve Smith to throw to, he should have at least as good a season as last year, but potentially much better.

Drew Bledsoe - It's hard to believe that I have included his name here, but Bledsoe was a consistent fantasy QB last year - without T.O. I am convinced that any QB with a strong arm will flourish throwing to a healthy T.O. Throw in Terry Glenn and Jason Witten, and Bledsoe has the makings of a truly special season.

Ben Roethlisberger - Not known so much for his throwing as he is winning and motorcycles, many have forgotten that Big Ben broke several passing records in high school and college before becoming the ultimate "manager of the game" in Pittsburgh. With Bettis gone, look for the Steelers to have to open it up a little bit more and look for Big Ben to throw it to Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Cedric Wilson and Santonio Holmes effectively in the red zone.

Marc Bulger - There is a little more risk to this pick this year than in years past, but Bulger is still a top 15 QB. The question is not whether he can play the position or if he has receivers to throw to. The question is how will the offense change under new coach Linehan and how will that affect Bulger's production? But with Steven Jackson, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Kevin Curtis on your offense, it is hard to imagine how Bulger could not produce.

Now, I am not opposed to drafting Culpepper, McNabb or Vick for fantasy QBs - just not this high. Too many question marks surround each guy to take them before the 8th round. Culpepper looked horrible prior to his injury, from which no one knows how far back he will be at the beginning of the season. McNabb has no one to throw to other than Brian Westbrook. Vick never threw it to anyone but Alge Crumpler, but really doesn't have a legitimate option at WR anyway. His rushing yardage will help his numbers some though.

In the same group as those three I would include Kurt Warner (great offense, but must avoid the injury bug), Jake Plummer (the snake can great or downright awful), Steve McNair (new surroundings, reunited with Mason, run-first offense), Brett Favre (yes, I said Brett Favre, threw 20 TDs last year even with no one to run it or throw to) and Trent Green (aging some, no real deep threat to throw to).

OK, we will discuss what should be left in a couple days. That gives you time to digest all of this wisdom.

Dominate Your Draft, Part 2

2006-07-18T18:25:00.000-05:00

OK. You have gained much wisdom from the Dominate your draft article below and are now ready to gobble up anymore great insights you can get. Going back to our hypothetical draft we were talking about below you should have the following:

(1) Two stud RBs
(2) A third RB with great upside

You avoided the pitfalls of so many others and did not follow your impulse to draft a WR, QB or (shudder) TE in the first 3 rounds. So far, so good. Now what do you do? You grab the best available PLAYER, regardless of position. However, you should look at positions in this order:

(1) WR
(2) RB
(3) QB
(4) TE

First WRs. If you haven't read the other post, do so now. There is a list of 15 WRs that could go in RD 3. It goes without saying that any of them are good for RD 4. Here is a short list of others that could be considered:

Chris Chambers
Andre Johnson
Deion Branch

Yeah, it's a short list after those initial 15. If none of these guys are there, then look at RB again. You say "What? I just drafted 3 RBs and may only be able to play 2 in my league!" If one of the starting RBs below is available, take him. By hoarding the starting RBs on your squad, you develop trade bait for better WRs and TEs later on when your fellow owners realize their starting RBs are both backups.

OK, if no RBs or WRs fit the bill, then look at TE or QB. Only 3 TEs rise to the level of a RD 4 -

Antonio Gates - San Diego
Jeremy Shockey - NY Giants
Tony Gonzalez - Kansas City

If you don't get one of these guys, wait until Round 9 or later. Value will be the same. There is also a group of QBs worthy of RD 4 picks:

Peyton Manning - Indianapolis (long gone by this time)
Matt Hasselback - Seattle
Tom Brady - New England
Carson Palmer - Cincinnati (check his progress in camp)

The trendy pick to go with Eli Manning this early sounds good, but I don't think he has risen any higher than a round 6 selection yet. Let someone else take him. Here are some names not to take in round 4:

Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia (Round 7 or later)
Mike Vick - Atlanta (not a good fantasy QB)
Daunte Culpepper - Miami (coming off terrible injury and season, new surroundings, may not play till October)

These names will most likely come up in your league around this time. Let someone else take them.

OK, the odds say that you should now have 3 RBs and a WR by this point, in Round 5 use the same priorities, but open up your options a little more. When it comes to WR, I'll let you in on a secret - after the 18 WRs we have already discussed, it becomes a guessing game as to which ones will play better than another. Here is the goal when considering WRs: Try to get 2 WRs who are going to get the most throws on their squad. The guys from the prolific offenses are most likely gone by now, so look at teams with projected weak defenses or where there is no clear #2. Here is a list of guys not already mentioned that could be gotten after RD5:

Drew Bennett - Tennessee (reunited with Volek)
Lee Evans - Buffalo (Moulds is gone)
Derrick Mason - Baltimore (reunited with Air McNair)
Joey Galloway - Tampa Bay (still has the speed)
Javon Walker - Denver (only if he's healthy)
TJ Houshmandzadeh - Cincinnati (No. 2 guy, but if Palmer is healthy he will outperform most #1s)

After this group, there is a fall off. In fact, you could see any of these guys go anywhere from RD5 to RD10. Some are No. 1 guys on bad throwing teams, others are No. 2s on better throwing teams. They are almost interchangeable as far as rankings.

Muhsin Muhammed - Chicago
Keenan McCardell - San Diego
Eddie Kennison - Kansas City
Reggie Brown - Philadelphia
Antonio Bryant - San Francisco
Joe Horn - New Orleans
Donte Stallworth - New Orleans
Rod Smith - Denver
Nate Burleson - Seattle
Koren Robinson - Minnesota
Lavaraneus Coles - NY Jets
Matt Jones - Jacksonville
Ernest Wilford - Jacksonville

Try to get another WR in RD 5, so you can focus RD 6 on QB. Further breakdown will follow in the next post.

Dominating Your Draft

2006-07-14T15:10:00.000-05:00

OK, it is drawing closer to your league's draft for fantasy football this year. Let me tell you - there is not a more exciting or depressing day of the football season for most of us. Either we are elated with our savvy picks and ready to bring on the season, or we are deep in despair as we let another year go down the drain before even playing a game.

So if you are tired of scavenging the waiver wire or free agent list within 1 hour of your draft, relax. You have come to the right place. I have read what the experts have to say and have already participated in nearly 20 league drafts on the internet. I can tell you what you need to know to draft a winning football team. Here are 5 easy tips to follow that guarantee success:

Tip #1 - Forget about Peyton Manning, T.O. and Steve Smith.

These guys all have 1st or 2nd round value, but they DON'T PLAY RB! RBs are the most precious commodity in Fantasy Football. In most leagues you have to start at least 2, maybe 3. There are only 32 teams and only about 15 of them have a healthy, established RB with little competition for touchesthat will not have to share the ball a lot. They are as follows, in particular order:

Larry Johnson - KC
Sean Alexander - Seattle
LaDanian Tomlinson - San Diego
Clinton Portis - Washington
Tiki Barber - NY Giants
Lamont Jordan - Oakland
Steven Jackson - St. Louis
Ronnie Brown - Miami
Cadillac Williams - Tampa Bay
Julius Jones - Dallas
Rudi Johnson - Cincinnati
Reuben Droughns - Cleveland
Domanick Davis - Houston
Edgerrin James - Arizona
Willis McGahee - Buffalo

Get 2 of these in the first 2 rounds. Forget about the rest of the positions. Let the other guys draft Chad Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald #1 and #2. Then when they are starting the likes of Kevan Barlow at RB, they'll come to you for a trade and you can laugh in their face.

Tip #2 - The 3rd Round is the dividing line

If you are in a league of morons and can draft one of the 15 above in the 3rd round, skip to Tip #3. For the rest of us, this pick will be more dicey, more intriguing. However, I tell you - stay on the RB ship. Here is the next tier of RBs with some questions. Training Camp may change these questions and elevate them to the top tier, so watch close.

(1) DeShaun Foster - Carolina (injury prone, big contract in offseason, rookie drafted behind him 1st Rd)
(2) Chester Taylor - Baltimore (never been the man, will he play like LaMont Jordan or Kevan Barlow last year? What about Mewelde Moore?)
(3) Willie Parker - Pittsburgh (Sophomore slump? Does Duce Staley get all the TDs? How will Bettis leaving affect Pitt's offensive scheme?)
(4) Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia (Injuries, Injuries, Injuries. Oh yeah, can they run the ball with no WRs on the team?)
(5) Warrick Dunn - Atlanta (the little engine that could, is he too old and too little for this now? Will Duckett keep eating away at TDs and carries? Will Vick run the ball more than Dunn?)
(6) Kevin Jones - Detroit (Is he really the man this year for Lions? Will Martz let him carry the rock?)
(7) Jamal Lewis - Baltimore (Is he washed up, or was last year an aberration? Will Air McNair free up the inside rushing lanes?)
(8) Corey Dillon - New England (Will the injury bug strike again? How does Maroney fit into the picture?)

Now any of these guys could be huge this season, or they could be duds. They are perfect fits for your #3 back. If you are drafting one of these guys #1, then, you did not read the first tip and your season is most likely lost. #2, you may still have a shot. If none of these guys are available in the 3rd round, then go WR. There are only 15 elite, proven receivers out there worthy of such a pick in the top 4 rounds. No, I am not giving you their names. I have to keep something for myself :) OK, they are below:

Terrel Owens
Steve Smith
Chad Johnson
Larry Fitzgerald
Torry Holt
Randy Moss
Anquan Boldin
Marvin Harrison
Reggie Wayne
Donald Driver
Darrel Jackson
Hines Ward
Santana Moss
Roy Williams
Plaxico Burress

The numbers say one of these 38 players will be there in the top 3 rounds. If no RBs, then take an elite WR.

Tip #3 - Do not overspend for a QB!

Many people pick QBs way too high because they know them the best. They are the marquis players on Sportscenter every night. Ignore them until the 6th or 7th round. You can get nearly the same production out of Jake Delhomme in the 7th round as you can Tom Brady in the 3rd round. Meanwhile, you are loading up on elite players at other positions.

Tip #4: Draft for depth at the RB position before going after your DEF, K or TE.

Now, if you can get Jeremy Shockey or Alge Crumpler in the 6th or 7th round, disregard this advice. However, all TEs after this are pretty much a wash. If anyone claims to know that Jerramy Stevens is going to be substantially better than Randy McMichael this season, they either have a functional crystal ball or don't know what they are talking about. Many of the undrafted TEs last year outperformed those drafted in the 6th or 7th rounds or earlier last year.

That leads me to my next tip. Draft at least 2 WRs and 3 RBs by Rd #5, then QB Rd #6. Now, you have your most difficult positions filled, it's time to get some value. While your brethren are scarmbling for Adam Vinateiri or Chicago DEF in this time frame, you can get value by drafting a starting RB for your bench. Here are some guys to look for:

(1) Ahman Green - Green Bay (If he had not been hurt last year, this would be a for sure pick in the top 3 rounds. Watch the training camp reports to see if he is back or not.)
(2) Fred Taylor - Jacksonville (OK, he has bones of glass, but I guarantee you can trade him to some poor schmuck with 4 QBs on his roster after the draft for a good WR).
(3) Curtis Martin - NY Jets (Yeah, he's old. Yeah, he didn't play the final 3 games last year. Yeah, the Jets Off. will suck this year. Draft him. He is a hall of famer who won the rushing title 2 years ago and the Jets only offensive weapon).
(4) Frank Gore - San Francisco (Who? If Norv Turner names him the starter in camp, he will go higher than this, but if the dreaded Running Back by Committee is announced, draft him anyway. He has more talent and more hunger than Barlow and Turner has a history of having great backs on his offenses).

Tip #5: Watch the Undecided RB situations

There are a number of places that have undetermined situations or RBC already announced at the RB situation. If one of these situations clarifies itself in camp, through injury or coaching decision, it will change the draft.

(1) Indianapolis Colts - Addai or Rhodes? If they go with one as their featured back, could be top 5 value in 3rd to 5th rounds.
(2) Chicago Bears - Jones or Benson? Unless one of these guys gets hurt, they will share time with each other. However, lean toward Benson if he is available in Round #8 or later. Could be huge.
(3) Denver Broncos - Dayne or Bell? Fantasy experts annointed Bell as the starter early on, only to upset nearly every fantasy owner in the business when Mike Anderson got the lion's share. This year, they say the same thing about Bell, but Shanahan is saying Dayne is the man. Dayne could be a steal in round 8 or later.
(4) New Orleans - Bush or McCallister? Bush was superhuman in the college game, but some question if he can take 16 weeks of punishment at his size in the NFL. Meanwhile, McCallister is coming off knee surgery and may not even be a factor. If Deuce is out with an injury for the beginning of the season, some yard bird in your league will take Bush in Round 1. Let him. He is not good value even as the named starter until Round 3.
(5) Tennessee Titans - Henry, Brown or White? If your draft is before the 3rd week of the preseason, avoid these guys like the plague. No one knows what is going to happen. Henry is a druggie with injury problems, Brown is a clean player with injury problems and White is an immature player with injury problems. Unless one is named the definitive starter in the preseason, these guys should be avoided until the really late rounds. I have White ahead of Brown, but only slightly. Take Henry off your cheat sheet.

There you have it. I will provide more advice for the later rounds sometime over the next couple of weeks.

IF YOU HAVE A SPECIFIC QUESTION YOU WANT TO ASK, LEAVE A COMMENT AND I WILL RESPOND. THE ALL-KNOWING, MOST HIGHLY EXALTED FANTASY FOOTBALL GURU IS ALWAYS GLAD TO HELP THOSE LESS FORTUNATE - SO LONG AS YOU ARE NOT IN MY LEAGUE!

Week 11 Fantasy Football Guru Comments

2005-11-22T15:25:00.000-05:00

Sorry for the 3 week hiatus, but I have been rather busy, mopping up in my 6 leagues!

Again, if you are here, that means you have failed to lockup a playoff spot yet in your league, or are in dange of not making them at all. With 3 or 4 weeks left, you are looking for that edge, that one thing that can push you over the top. Since you can't redraft your team, fool someone into trading their good player for your injured guy since the trade deadline passed, then the next best thing is to come to the guru with several fantasy waiver wire tips and starting sleepers!

By position, I have listed those I think could help you this week who others may not expect:

QBs

(1) Kyle Boller - if you didn't see the Colts game, take my word for it. Teams are going to throw more against the Bengals and throw deep. Can Boller finally put it together with Mason, Heap and Co? That is the question, but my answer this week is "yes."
(2) David Carr - Hey, he's a former #1 draft pick, he has to produce sometime, and after watching Kurt Warner look like his MVP days against them, I think Carr has as good a chance against the Rams as he does against any team this season of lighting it up. Add a healthy Domanick Davis and a healthy Andre Johnson, things look even better!
(3) Trent Dilfer - OK, Trent is never going to look like the high first round pick that was used on him by Tampa Bay, but he has been successful this year in certain situations. Now that Reuben Droughns is running the ball better, Dilfer may actually have a chance to "manage" the game like he did in Baltimore 5 years ago. Also, a bigger role for Braylon Edwards will help too.

RBs

Everyone ran out last week and tried to get Samkon Gado, but we all found out that he isn't the next Ahman Green just yet. Here are a few others:

(1) Chris Perry - Sure, he is only playing about 25% of the time, while Rudi Johnson carries the load for the Bengals, but his 25% is very productive. He averages more catches that most 2nd receivers and gained over 80 yards last week on the ground. If you are actually needing an RB at this time of the season, he is one of your best bets, albeit a weak one.
(2) DeShaun Foster - This guy was on someone's roster at the beginning of the year, but his backup role got him cut about week 2 or 3. However, last week he had more carries than Steven Davis and Coach John Fox has said he wants him more involved in the gameplan. If you have an open roster spot, and don't have enough good, starting RBs on your roster, he is worth the risk this week against the much maligned and over-rated Bills defense.
(3) Chester Taylor - He is 3rd only because there is a good chance that he is not available right now, even though he is a backup at this point. Look for Taylor to play more and more for Jamaal Lewis in Baltimore, taking the spot over later in the year. He has outplayed him all season long. Against the Bengals, he will get some catches and rushing yards.

WRs

(1) Chris Henry - This rookie is the Bengals established #3 receiver and has 4 TDs this season, including one against the Raves a couple of weeks ago. Look for him to get 4-5 catches and possible a long ball for a TD in this game.
(2) Laveraneus Coles - This guy was probably a 3rd or 4th round pick in your league this year who was cut a couple weeks after it was apparent that no one could play QB for the Jets this year. However, he is matched up this week against a weak and demoralized Saints secondary. If Bollinger can come back from a concussion or Vinny can walk on his bum ankle, look for Coles to have a few catches and yards this weekend.
(3) Brandon Jones - the rookie WR had some good games and probably got picked up in a few leagues, only to be cut loose following a couple bad games and a bye week. However, this week against the 49ers, he should have a good game. Having Drew Bennett on the other side will help too. By the way, if someone in your league dumped Drew Bennett when he was injured go and pick him back up today.

TEs

If you don't have one of the top 10 TEs, your guess is as good as mine is. Here is the only advice I can give - if you have Todd Heap, start him against the Bengals.

Boom or Bust - these guys will either make you very happy or having you yelling at your TV set.

Kurt Warner - OK, so after he lit up the Rams you found him on the free agent rolls and put him on your roster. Now, he has to play against the Jaguars, one the league's best defenses. My guess is this week Warner is a bust, leave him on your bench for when they play the 49ers or someone else. If Vinny Testaverde is your other QB, start Warner. Bust.

Mike Alstatt - The Bucaneers have taken to running Mike again on the goal line, figuring the Cadillac can't take too much pounding. You notice his 5 TDs this year and run out and pick him up. However, against the Bears, I doubt the Bucaneers have a lot of goal line opportunities, and if they do, Alstatt will most likely be utterly destroyed behind the line of scrimmage. Bust.

WR Matt Jones - The rookie who played QB in college is coming into his own, with touchdowns in 3 of the last 4 games. However, don't get too enthralled just yet. We need to see more of him before we say he is a bona fide starter, but he is worth a look this week against the not so vaunted Rams Defense.

There you have it. Please leave comments if you have questions and I will get back to you at my leisure.

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Tips for Week 8

2005-10-26T15:13:00.000-05:00

If you are reading this blog, then you are probably in the bottom half of your league standings, Deuce McCallister or Ahman Green have broken your lineup and some other wiseguys in your league already snapped up the Saints and Green Bay backups. Or maybe your Colts are on a bye week and you have no one else on your team that can score.

Well, you have come to the right place. The Most Highly Exalted Fantasy Football Guru has the diamonds in the rough whose potential points are just sitting out there in free agent land. Today, we look at the top 3 QBs, which are listed below:

Quarterbacks

(1) Jamie Martin, St. Louis Rams - OK, if you are in a league where people really know their stuff, this guy was gone during the Monday night game that Bulger got hurt. However, if you're in one of those leagues where the people are in it just to send cocky emails or post obnoxious smack talk, this guy is probalby still out there. Now, I know that the Rams play the Jaguars this week and the Jaguars are only allowing an impressive 153 yards per game through the air. I also konw that Martin is not Bulger. However it is still the Rams, and I look for the Jags to put some points up on the Rams early, forcing the Rams to put it in the air. Plus, the Rams are in the dome so he is a better than average bet to get at least one touchdown + 250 yards. The only question is the turnovers.

(2) Chris Simms, Tampa Bay Bucs - Brian Griese is done for the season and it is up to Simms to make it happen. Don't let the signing of Rattay scare you - this is Simms team. Also, he should be as effective as Griese in this offense. Cadillac is coming back, so Simms will not have to carry the team. That being said, Gruden likes to throw the ball in the red zone, so Simms should be a productive fantasy QB.

(3) Alex Smith, San Francisco 49ers - OK, this is a joke. Maybe he will make the list 3 years from now, if he lives that long behind that O line!

Yes, the pickings are slim. Some honorable mentions that could be out there would be:

Jeff Garcia (Detroit, although I don't like the matchup with the Bears)
David Carr (Houston, could be a coming out party, but could also be more of the same)
Billy Volek (Tennessee, 50-50 chance he gets to start again in place of McNair, but watch that concussion)

Yeah, if you didn't have the foresight to pickup a good backup QB to Peyton Manning in the draft, or you happened to pickup Brian Griese, it will be a tough week for you at QB.